The so-called oil bubble

By Paul Krugman

 

‘The Oil Bubble: Set to Burst?” That was the headline of an October 2004 article in National Review, which argued that oil prices, then $50 a barrel, would soon collapse.

Ten months later, oil was selling for $70 a barrel. “It’s a huge bubble,” declared Steve Forbes, the publisher, who warned that the coming crash in oil prices would make the popping of the technology bubble “look like a picnic.”

All through oil’s five-year price surge, which has taken it from $25 a barrel to last week’s close above $125, there have been many voices declaring that it’s all a bubble, unsupported by the fundamentals of supply and demand.

So here are two questions: Are speculators mainly, or even largely, responsible for high oil prices? And if they aren’t, why have so many commentators insisted, year after year, that there’s an oil bubble?

Now, speculators do sometimes push commodity prices far above the level justified by fundamentals. But when that happens, there are telltale signs that just aren’t there in today’s oil market.

Imagine what would happen if the oil market were humming along, with supply and demand balanced at a price of $25 a barrel, and a bunch of speculators came in and drove the price up to $100.

Even if this were purely a financial play on the part of the speculators, it would have major consequences in the material world. Faced with higher prices, drivers would cut back on their driving; homeowners would turn down their thermostats; owners of marginal oil wells would put them back into production.

Japan’s oldest giant panda dies

TOKYO - Japan’s oldest giant panda, Ling Ling, a longtime star at Tokyo’s largest zoo and a symbol of friendship with China, died Wednesday of heart failure, zoo keepers said.

Ling Ling was 22 years and seven months old, equivalent to about 70 human years, the Ueno Zoo said. It said he was the fifth-oldest known male panda in the world.

Ling Ling began losing his appetite and strength last August because of his old age, and recently suffered from heart and kidney problems, zoo official Motoyasu Ida said.

Keepers and visitors mourned the panda, which was the zoo’s most popular attraction for more than 15 years. Public broadcaster NHK showed many visitors writing condolence messages, with some brushing away tears.

Ling Ling’s portrait was displayed inside his cage, along with bouquets and offerings of his favorite bamboo shoots.

An autopsy found he died of heart failure, Ida said.

Zoo keepers said they found Ling Ling’s body early Wednesday when they entered his cage to check up on him.

“He was resting at his favorite spot, a hole where he used to sit,” Ida said.

Ling Ling died just one day after the zoo withdrew him from public view because of his worsening health.

Born at China’s Beijing Zoo in 1985, Ling Ling came to Tokyo in 1992. He had traveled to Mexico three times in recent years for unsuccessful mating.

Ling Ling was the only giant panda owned by Japan, with eight other pandas elsewhere in the country all loaned by China, according to media reports.

With Ling Ling’s loss, Ueno Zoo is without a panda for the first time since 1972, when the first panda couple arrived from China to mark the signing of bilateral peace treaty.

Ida said the zoo is currently consulting with the Foreign Ministry about obtaining another panda from China.

The regional newspaper Tokyo Shimbun reported Tuesday that Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda may ask Chinese President Hu Jintao to consider the possibility of loaning a pair of pandas to Japan.

Giant pandas are one of the world’s rarest animals, with about 1,600 living in the wild in China, mostly in Sichuan and Shaanxi provinces.

Sumber: MARI YAMAGUCHI, Associated Press Writer

Going Green in the Workplace

There are endless ways to create a greener workplace from using recycled products to installing doubled-paned windows for better insulation. The best way to start is by taking small steps. Here are a few ideas you can work with.

1. Green up your commute. Since your workday begins when you arrive, let’s start with how you get there. The best-case scenario is to telecommute by working from home. Today’s technology–e.g., video conferencing, instant messaging and online seminars–has made this a reality. However, if your office can’t be home based and walking or biking is not an option consider carpooling with two to three other like-minded people or using public transportation. Other alternatives are purchasing a hybrid or electric vehicle or switching from an eight-hour workday, five days a week to a 10-hour workday, four days a week. This will cut your daily commute time by at least 20 percent and give you longer weekends.

2. Go digital. The greenest paper is no paper, and one of the most effective ways to be more eco-friendly in your office is to reduce paper waste. Switch from a fax machine to a fax modem to send and receive paperless documents. Use electronic forms whenever possible, and e-mail letters and documents to be read online rather than printed out. Have staff members take their laptops to team meetings so they aren’t printing reams of reports. An added bonus: Storing files on your computer saves time, money and space. Just don’t forget to backup, preferably to an off-site data system. You can also use compact flash drives to easily and efficiently transport and share documents. Not only are they more convenient than CDs, but most have security features to protect sensitive data.

3. Read the green print. When printing is unavoidable, use the draft mode on your printer and make double-sided printing your default. The same rules apply to your copier as well.

Test the waters of self-employment without jumping in

The odds are that you will probably consider self-employment at some point: Eighty-nine percent of people in the United States who make more than $50,000 a year are self-employed, according to Entrepreneur magazine.

As with all decision points, the way to make the best choice is to know yourself. If you get bored easily, do a lot of different jobs. If you are a type-A hyperachiever, do one business really, really well. If you have a small tolerance for risk, keep a full-time job while you explore other options. All are great ways to make the shift to working for yourself.

One of the most interesting recipes for self-employment comes from self-employment evangelist Barbara Winter. Winter says that it’s easier to have five jobs that generate $10,000 a year than it is to have one job that generates $50,000 a year – the perfect scenario for opening an eBay business, renting out a room in your condo, writing press releases for your friend’s startup, etc.

Do you have a good job? Take the test

Today’s job market favors employees. The attitude of most workers is that they should have a job that makes them happy. So it’s no surprise that at any given time 70 percent of the workforce is job hunting, according to the Wall St. Journal.

Everyone is looking for the right position. But what exactly does that mean?

Here is something it’s probably not: Prestigious. People who chase fame and prestige are generally not as happy as other people. If you’re after fame, you are setting goals that are dependent on other peoples’ approval. Conversely, goals about self-acceptance and friendship make you happy because you have more control over them.

You might think you’re different - that you have a legitimate shot at fame. Ninety percent of young workers think they are in the top 10 percent of all workers, according to Business Week.

Bad career advice: Do what you love

One of the worst pieces of career advice that I bet each of you has not only gotten but given is to “do what you love.”

Forget that. It’s absurd. I have been writing since before I even knew how to write - when I was a preschooler I dictated my writing to my dad. And you might not be in preschool, but if you are in touch with who you are, you are doing what you love, no matter what, because you love it.

So it’s preposterous that we need to get paid to do what we love because we do that stuff anyway. So you will say, “But look. Now you are getting paid to do what you love. You are so lucky.” But it’s not true. We are each multifaceted, multilayered, complicated people, and if you are reading this blog, you probably devote a large part of your life to learning about yourself and you know it’s a process. None us loves just one thing.

How to wait: Don’t

In general, I’m not a big fan of waiting. So here is advice on how to wait from someone who does it only rarely. But I have found that the art of waiting is to do it actively. The more action you can take the more you feel like you’re in control of your life.

How to wait for a raise
Most companies have a designated time to dole out raises. So when you decide you deserve more money, you probably have to a wait for your big moment. In the meantime, constantly remind your boss about the good job you are doing, and subtly prepare her with all the supporting material she will need to justify your raise to her superiors. This means documenting as you go, with an email that is easy to add to your yearly review as evidence of outstanding performance. Also, do research about salaries in your field. If the raise comes in low, whip out these statistics to show your value in the market.

How to wait for a job you love
Many people know they are not happy but don’t know what would make them happy. The only way to figure out your dream job is to try doing a lot of things.

Don’t wait for retirement to live the good life. Do it now

Maybe the reason we’re so bad at saving for retirement is that retirement seems so ridiculous today. The workplace no longer demands that we put off our hopes and dreams until we’ve worked 40 years. And Baby Boomers aren’t exactly retiring in droves either, which makes younger people think that maybe they won’t want to retire either.

This demographic shift in thinking about careers leads to a new way to think about retirement and dream jobs and team work. Young people think their parents—Baby Boomers—missed out on this phase. Baby Boomers worked longer hours than any other generation and there’s a nagging feeling that it wasn’t all that necessary - that we can have engaging, rewarding careers without spending such a large percentage of our life at the office.

In fact, today there’s an intense peer pressure among young people to find the fulfilling dream job right away. This younger generation watched their parents put off their dreams until they paid their dues only to find themselves laid off mid-career, or underfunded for retirement late in their career. So Generation Y is not waiting.

How to get a job you’re not qualified for

Getting hired even when you’re not qualified is one of the most important skills to have if you want to keep your work life interesting. Because if you are always taking jobs you’re qualified for, then your learning curve is really flat, and your work life is really boring.

So here are three ways to get hired when you’re not qualified for the job.

1. Create a project from a different arena that interests you.
One reason my resume is so varied is that I have always done two things at once so that I can switch up as soon as my learning curve flattens. For example, when I was playing professional beach volleyball, I was also writing stories every day. So I was ready to go to grad school as soon as I got tired of volleyball.

Biofuel Pilihan Terakhir?

Berikut petikan paparan Prof Dr Emil Salim pada Harian Ekonomi Neraca

Menurut Emil Salim, energi biofuel yang lagi digalakan seharusnya menjadi prioritas terendah setelah seluruh sumber energi alternatif lainnya diberdayakan seperti energi matahari, geothermal, biomas, air dan angin.

Saat ini biofuel berasal dari Kelapa Sawit dan pohon Jarak yang memerlukan banyak lahan untuk mengembangkannya. Dan banyak sekali pohon Kelapa Sawit ditanam di daerah hutan bukan daerah yang terdegradasi.Sebaiknya lahan di Indonesia diselamatkan dahulu untuk mencukupi kebutuhan pangan.

Emil Salim meminta Pemerintah tidak mengembangkan tanaman Jarak di Jawa, karena tanaman ini merusak kesuburan tanah. Padahal tingkat kesuburan tanah di pulau Jawa adalah empat kali kesuburan di Sumatera dan enam kali kesuburan di Kalimantan. Sebaiknya Jarak ditanam di daerah tandus di luar Jawa. Tanah di Pulau Jawa jangan diganggu kesuburannya.

Emil lebih menginginkan pembangunan berkualitas menuju masyarakat sejahtera dengan rendah karbon, seperti dengan mengurangi emisi karbon sektoral melalui pengembangan sitem, sains dan teknologi dan menaikkan penyerapan karbon secara alami.

Demikian paparan beliau menyongsong era harga minyak bumi yang tinggi.